Abstract
Life table analysis was used to evaluate the recurrence rate after segmental aponeurectomy for Dupuytren's disease. From this analysis, factors that play a role in the progress of the disease after surgery have been defined. A mathematical model has also been created which could serve as a baseline to compare the results after segmental aponeurectomy with those of other techniques. The introduction of corrective factors allowing for the different follow-up periods gives, by projection, a proportion of 68% of recurrence after ten years. This high percentage of recurrences to which a number of extensions should be added confirms that surgery is not curative in Dupuytren's disease; after ten years, almost no hand would be left clear of the disease. Patients operated on before the age of 45 or having ectopic sites of the disease run a higher risk of recurrence. No other factors, local or general, play a statistically significant prognostic role.
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