Abstract
The situation Peru is facing with the global COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recession during this 2020 constitutes the worst crisis over the last 100 years. This economic recession has not happened since the crisis of 1980. GPD may decline by 15% this year. Also, the perspective on global economy is terrible and a sharp contraction of global GDP is expected. On the other hand, the period between 2020 and 2021 will be considered as years of economic development lost. Specifically, receptive tourism in Peru is in danger of extinction because of the pandemic. Activity in the tourism market, which gives employment to 1.4 million people who are mainly women, is in total collapse. This article aims to make a proposal to help tourism sales recover their position as the most important section of service exports in Peru. The proposal is intended to encourage a non-traditional form of tourism in the tropical coast of the north of the country that should complement the traditional archeological tourism. The conclusions make emphasis on the fact that, at present, Peru is not exploiting its historical richness or using its comparative advantage in tourism, which could become a leading sector of domestic economy. Finally, our thesis is based on the notion that, from 2021 onwards, the recovery of the Peruvian economy must necessarily be based on exploiting the recovery of external demand rather than putting our trust in domestic demand growth.
Highlights
The situation in which we find ourselves in Peru during 2020, which is in the midst of a mayor global epidemic and a global economic recession, is the worst social and economic crisis over the last 100 years
Other experts’ estimates vary from 12% to 20%. These levels of economic recession have not occurred in Peru since the economic crisis in the 1980s [3]
Global GDP will not recover to pre-coronavirus levels at least until 2022
Summary
The situation in which we find ourselves in Peru during 2020, which is in the midst of a mayor global epidemic and a global economic recession, is the worst social and economic crisis over the last 100 years. The cited report estimates a decline of 30% for year 2020 Another clear impact of the Covid-19 epidemic is the reopening of the debt crisis in developing countries. A report presented by the Economist Intelligence Unit [11] projects the impact on the increasing levels of public debt in emerging countries from Latin America and Asia and developed countries such as Italy and Spain. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, an acute contraction of the global output is expected to occur this year. The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates that, in the baseline scenario, foreign visitors travelling to Latin America will decline by 45% in 2020 [16] Both formal and informal tourism industry in Peru used to generate $22 billion, representing 9.7% of GDP [5].
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