Reconstructions of ground surface heat flux variations in the urals from geothermal and meteorological data

Abstract

Ground surface heat flux variations over the last 30000, 1000, and 150 years in the Urals were first estimated on the basis of geothermal reconstructions of ground surface temperature histories and meteorological data. The heat flux histories obtained and the factors affecting climate—mean annual insolation, global solar radiation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and volcanic activity—were simultaneously analyzed. On the scale of glacial-interglacial cycles, variations in the flux of heat almost completely coincided with those in insolation in the Northern Hemisphere, and variations in the content of CO2 occurred 2000–3000 years later synchronously with the response of temperature. In the last 1000 years, heat flux variations have been determined mainly by the parameters of solar radiation; however, the influence of other factors, such as atmospheric CO2 content and volcanic activity, has also been noticeable. In the last 150 years, variations in the flux of heat have occurred in antiphase with those in the flux of solar radiation, and an increase in the atmospheric content of CO2 has mainly contributed to the observed warming.