Reconstruction of Violent Tornado Environments in Europe: High‐Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of ERA5

Abstract

AbstractApproximately 1–3 violent tornadoes hit Europe each decade. We use the ERA5 reanalysis and WRF model to reconstruct environments for 12 cases between 1957 and 2021. Violent tornadoes in Europe occur in a variety of synoptic and mesoscale patterns, but they share environmental similarities with significant tornadoes from the United States. Downscaling simulations to 3 km grid‐spacing showed the added value of improved resolution in representing local convective environments. In 8 out of 12 simulations, the model indicated updraft helicity (UH) tracks in a favorable convective environment in spatial (+/−50 km) and temporal (+/−3 hr) proximity to the tornado report. Tornadoes were accompanied by a mean 0–6 km wind shear of 24.3 m s−1 and mean convective available potential energy of 1678 J kg−1. The combination of UH tracks with convective environments offers promising results for operational forecasting in Europe, and should be explored in future studies.