Reconstruction of Human-Induced Forest Loss in China during 1900–2000

Abstract

Forests not only are an essential resource for human society but also have a significant impact on the climate. With the development of remote sensing technology, some progress has been made in forest change monitoring. However, relatively little research has been conducted on historical forest dynamics. Estimating forest loss and its drivers during historical time periods remains a scientific pursuit. In this study, we reconstructed forest loss and its dominant drivers across China based on long time-series socioeconomic and environmental data using LightGBM classification and regression models. The models showed good performance in both 10-fold cross-validation and comparison with other datasets. The results indicate that from 1900 to 2000, forest loss mainly occurred in southern China, with a total loss area of 34.4 × 104 km2. Additionally, there was significant spatial heterogeneity, showing a decreasing trend from east to west and from south to north. The forest loss in China can be divided into two stages: (1) the stable stage from 1900 to 1949; and (2) the fluctuating stage from 1950 to 1999. In the first stage, most of the forest loss was attributed to forestry (>80%), followed by commodity-driven deforestation. In the early stage of the development of the People’s Republic of China, forest loss showed an increasing trend. In the 1960s, the forest loss area decreased by 12.9% due to the stagnation of the economy. With the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, the total forest loss area in China reached its peak value (6.4 × 104 km2) during 1980–1989. The models also accurately captured the impact of urbanization and government policy in this period. This study not only provides an in-depth understanding of historical forest change in China, but also offers data and methodological references for the further study of human–nature interactions over the long term.