Reconstruction of Holocene sea‐surface salinity in the Skagerrak–Kattegat: a climatic and environmental record of Scandinavia

Abstract

Holocene sea-surface salinity in the Skagerrak–Kattegat is reconstructed using weighted averaging regression and calibration (WA) of diatom data from core Skagen 3. Diatom data from surface sediments together with 10-yr mean values of salinity and water temperature were used as a modern training set. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to identify statistically significant directions of variation within the training set. The results of forward selection of the environmental variables and associated Monte Carlo permutation tests of the statistical significance of each variable, the canonical coefficients, and the intraset correlations of the environmental variables with the CCA axes suggest that summer and winter sea-surface salinities (SSS, WSS) are potentially reconstructable from fossil diatom assemblages. The changes in sea-surface salinity during the Holocene can be correlated with changes in climate of the circum-Baltic area, the current patterns of the Skagerrak–Kattegat, and the development of the Baltic Sea. Generally low SSS and large differences between WSS and SSS (ΔSw-s) during 9000–6000 yr BP might have resulted from a climate with higher precipitation than today in the circum-Baltic area and its catchment, or a climate with maximum precipitation in late spring or early summer. The mechanism behind these patterns may be the combination of the northward shift of the jet stream and a stronger surface westerly penetration into the continent caused by a reduced latitudinal insolation gradient and enhanced land–sea contrast in the early to middle Holocene. It was, however, complicated by local events such as changes in the strength of various currents in the Skagerrak–Kattegat, successions of Baltic brackish and freshwater phases, and hydrodynamic conditions in the circum-Baltic area. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.