Reconstruction of Forest and Grassland Cover for the Conterminous United States from 1000 AD to 2000 AD

Abstract

Spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land cover change is a prerequisite for a more comprehensive understanding of environmental changes. Anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered the land cover of the conterminous United States (CONUS), encroaching heavily on the primary vegetation. However, few datasets exist that depict the historical trajectory of forest and grassland cover changes in CONUS over the last millennium, and previous efforts have only focused on reconstructions for the last four centuries. By integrating remote sensing-derived land use/cover change (LUCC) data and potential vegetation data, we determined the potential extent of natural forest (PENF) and grassland (PENG) in CONUS. Based on a qualitative analysis of the trends and driving forces of forest and grassland changes, we devised a method of subtracting reconstructed historical cropland (1000–2000 AD) and built-up land (1850–2000 AD) from PENG and PENF to reconstruct a 5 min × 5 min grid dataset of forest and grassland cover at 13 time-points over the past millennium. The results showed that forest and grassland cover in CONUS underwent a slow decline (1000–1600 AD), an accelerated decline (1600–1800 AD), a dramatic decline (1800–1950 AD), and finally, a recovery (1950–2000 AD) over the study period. The modelled forest fraction decreased from 49% in 1000 AD to 33% in 2000 AD, representing a 32% area reduction, whereas the modelled grassland fraction decreased from 37% to 22%, representing a 42% area reduction. The reduction occurred primarily in the last 200 years, with forest and grassland reductions accounting for 86% and 97% of the total reduction over the millennium, respectively. Spatially, more than 80% of the land was originally covered by forests and grasslands, and the loss occurred mainly in the eastern CONUS and Great Plains over the past millennium. After the 1930s, farmland abandonment began in central and eastern CONUS, simultaneously with environmental protection laws. Federal government regeneration programs for forest and grassland resources and the Shelterbelt Project all contributed to a slowdown in forest and grassland decline and recovery in cover.