Reconstructing the effects of fishing on life-history evolution in North Sea plaice Pleuronectes platessa

Abstract

Growing evidence suggests that fishing may induce rapid contemporary evolution in certain life-history traits. This study analyzes fisheries-induced changes in life-history traits describing growth, maturation, and reproduction, using an individual-based eco-genetic model that captures both the population dynamics and changes in genetic trait values. The model was successfully calibrated to match the observed life-history traits of female North Sea plaice 'Pleuronectes platessa' around the years 1900 and 2000. On this basis, we report the fllowing findings. First, the model indicates changes in 3 evolving life-history traits: the intercept of the maturation reaction norm decreases by 27%, the weight-specific reproductive-investment rate increases by 10%, and the weight-specific energy-acquisition rate increases by 1%. Together, these changes reduce the weight at maturation by 46% and the asymptotic body weight by 28% relative to the intensification of fishing around 1900. Second, while the maturation reaction norm and reproductive-investment rate change monotonically over time, the energy-acquisition rate follows a more complex course: after an initial increase during the first 50 yr, it remains constant for about 30 yr and then starts to decline. Third, our analysis indicates that North Sea plaice has not yet attained a new evolutionary equilibrium: it must be expected to evolve further towards earlier maturation, increased reproductive investment, and lower adult body size. Fourth, when fishing continues in our model 100 yr into the future, the pace of evolution slows down for the maturation reaction norm and the rate of energy acquisition, whereas no such slowing down is expected for the rate of reproductive investment.