Abstract
ObjectiveThe goal of this study was to dynamically model next-wave scenarios to observe the impact of different lockdown measures on the infection rates (IR) and mortality for two different prototype countries, mimicking the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.MethodsA dynamic simulation SIRD model was designed to assess the effectiveness of policy measures on four next-wave scenarios, each preceded by two different lockdowns. The four scenarios were (1) no-measures, (2) uniform measures, (3) differential measures based on isolating > 60 years of age group, and (4) differential measures with additional contact reduction measures for the 20–60 years of age group. The dynamic simulation model was prepared for two prototype European countries, Northwestern (NW) and Southern (S) country. Both prototype countries were characterized based on age composition and contact matrix.ResultsThe results show that the outcomes of the next-wave scenarios depend on number of infections of previous lockdowns. All scenarios reduce the incremental deaths compared with a no-measures scenario. Differential measures show lower number of deaths despite an increase of infections. Additionally, prototype S shows overall more deaths compared with prototype NW due to a higher share of older citizens.ConclusionThis study shows that differential measures are a worthwhile option for controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. This may also be the case in situations where relevant parts of the population have taken up vaccination. Additionally, the effectiveness of interventions strongly depends on the number of previously infected individuals. The results of this study may be useful when planning and forecasting the impact of non-pharmacological interventions and vaccination campaigns.
Highlights
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused over 100 million infections and more than 2 million deaths worldwide by the start of 2021 [1]
We developed a dynamic simulation 4 age groups’ SIRD model (Figure 1) to evaluate the actual effectiveness of different lockdown measures by considering the impact of measures implemented in the previous wave(s)
Before we extensively present and discuss the results of our study, it is worth commenting on the status of the population at the Infections Deaths Immunity ratio
Summary
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused over 100 million infections and more than 2 million deaths worldwide by the start of 2021 [1]. At the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, the spread of the virus was fast with an initial reproduction number (R0) in the naive population varying between 2 and 4 causing the infection to spread rapidly across the globe [3]. The effective reproduction number (Rt) has started decreasing, following the implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention policies and social measures to prevent contagions [4, 5]. Starting from March 2020, many European countries have enacted lockdown measures to control the viral transmission, which entailed enforcing staying or working at home, closing schools, or implementing travel bans [6, 7]. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the pandemic and the effectiveness of policy measures to identify the most effective non-pharmacological measures and for optimal planning for the steps of vaccination campaigns and possible impacts of new COVID-19 strains
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