Abstract
ABSTRACT In ancient times, there is a scarcity of instrumental water flow data, which challenges the hydrological science community to understand the evolution of flood risk under the changing climate over the centennial scale. Based on the historical records of flood events, the first spatio-temporal database of flood risk occurrence was established in Raoping county, Guangdong, China from 1492 to 1985 (a 494-year period), with intensive human interpretation and local investigation. Specifically, the spatially explicit flood events of the river network were provided for each flood episode. A detailed analysis of the database shows a high frequency of flood risk in summer and early autumn. Specifically, a significant (p < 0.05) increase has been found in flood risks since 1960. However, flooding decreased significantly in recent decades due to meteorological and hydrological factors, as well as the population density and migration during the 500-year period. A spatial clustering of flood events in the northern and southern parts is also confirmed, which shows an impact of population dynamics on a centennial scale. Such methods can be a reference for establishing China's flooding database for ancient periods, promoting a better understanding of natural hazards and associated human behaviors under the context of long-term climate change.
Published Version
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