Reconstructing 169 years of historical atmospheric and hydrologic conditions in the American River Watershed through the Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model system

Abstract

The risk of more frequent and intensified extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. In semi-arid regions, particularly, both increased flooding and prolonged droughts pose a threat as the water resources system must be prepared for both types of extremes. To understand how future extremes may be altered, however, past extremes must be understood. For this reason, this study employs three physically based models to simulate the atmospheric, snow, and hydrologic conditions in the American River Watershed: the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and the Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model with the addition of a SNOW Module. Each model is individually calibrated and validated against either gauge data or data provided by the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model for two 10-year periods before a full 169-year daily reconstruction is performed for the period from 1852 through 2020. To analyze the model performance under hydrologic extremes, three flood years (1997, 2006, and 2017) and two drought periods (1987–1992 and 2012–2016) are further analyzed. The reconstruction outputs are found to successfully simulate historical conditions at both daily and monthly scales. Results highlight the importance of fully accounting for the role of temperature in snow processes and the subsequent flow conditions. By understanding how the models perform under historical extreme conditions, future extreme events can be compared, and necessary adaptation plans can be conceived to ensure that the watershed is prepared for future wet and dry conditions. Additionally, the created reconstruction dataset is comprehensive, simulating conditions across the hydroclimate, at a finer spatial and temporal scale than is typically available from observation data alone. The dataset can be further analyzed to assess changes in the trends and the potential trajectory of extreme events within the American River Watershed.