Reconsidering Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident.

Abstract

The Chernobyl accident led to major human suffering caused by the evacuation and other counter-measures. However, the direct health consequences of the accident-related radiation exposures, besides the acute effects and small number of thyroid cancers, have not been observed. This absence is challenged by some influential groups affecting public policies who claim that the true extent of radiogenic health consequences is covered up. We consider such claims. The most conservative (in this case – overestimating) linear no-threshold hypothesis was used to calculate excess cancer expectations for cleanup workers, the population of the contaminated areas and the global population. Statistical estimations were performed to verify whether such expected excess was detectable. The calculated cancer excess for each group is much less than uncertainties in number of cancer cases in epidemiological studies. Therefore the absence of detected radiation carcinogenesis is in full correspondence with the most conservative a priori expectations. Regarding the cover-up claims, rational choice analysis was performed. Such analysis shows that these claims are ill-founded. The present overcautious attitude to radiological hazards should be corrected in order to mitigate the present suffering and to avoid such suffering in the future.