Reconciling Nationalism and Stability in Eurasia

Abstract

Abstract : The rise of nation states on the territory of the former Soviet Union has produced profound change in the global order, change more significant than the demise of Soviet communism as a world ideology. The most accurate historical analog to what is now occurring in Eurasia is the collapse of the Hapsburg Empire and the construction of new states in Central Europe in the interwar years. Left to their own devices, the new Eurasian states could repeat the ethnic strife and political instability that became endemic in Central Europe in the 1920s and invited great power intervention in the 193Os. Reconciling the emergence of these states with global security and economic interdependence will be the challenge of the final decade of this century. The integration of these states into a new world order, not the demise of the Soviet Union, will mark the true conclusion of the Cold War policy of containment. The goal of the democratic West must be to merge stability in Eurasia with the national aspirations of the peoples there. This cannot be achieved without western, particularly U.S., engagement and resources. The Bush Administration has already begun this process with the diplomatic recognition of the Soviet successor states and the extension of an official presence in these countries. So far, however, relations with these new states have been driven by immediate concerns: nuclear proliferation, the command and control of nuclear weapons inherited from the Soviet Union, and the spread of Islamic fundamentalism into Central Asia. These are genuinely urgent concerns, but the United States has a longer term interest in helping to create viable and stable national entities on the territory of the former Soviet Union. This should be the underlying theme of our policy toward Eurasia. Creating the conditions for stability is intimately tied to the future course of nationalism in Eurasia and U.S. ability to influence and channel this force in positive directions.