Reconciling lesions, relapses and smouldering associated worsening: A unifying model for multiple sclerosis pathogenesis

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The failure of relapses and white matter lesions to properly explain long-term disability and progression in multiple sclerosis is compounded by its artificial separation into relapsing remitting, secondary progressive, and primary progressive pigeonholes. The well-known epidemiological disconnection between relapses and long-term disability progression has been rediscovered as “progression independent of relapse activity”, i.e. smouldering multiple sclerosis. This smouldering associated worsening proceeds despite early and prolonged use of disease modification therapies, even those that are highly effective at preventing relapses and new/enhancing white matter lesions on MRI. We recognise that smouldering associated worsening and relapse/lesion associated worsening coexist, to varying extents.The extent of cortical demyelination has been shown to correlate significantly with the severity of diffuse injury in normal appearing white matter (post mortem histopathologically (r = 0.55; P = 0.001), and in vivo with MRI (r = -0.6874; P = 0.0006)) and does so independently of white matter lesion burden. Axon loss in the normal appearing white matter explains disability in multiple sclerosis better than focal white matter lesions do. Smouldering associated worsening typically manifests as a length-dependent central axonopathy.We propose a unifying model for multiple sclerosis pathogenesis, wherein accumulation of cortical lesion burden predisposes associated normal appearing white matter to diffuse injury, whilst also intensifying damage within white matter lesions. Our novel two-hit hypothesis implicates cortical disease as a culprit for smouldering multiple sclerosis, abetted by active focal inflammation in the white matter (and vice versa). Substantiation of the two-hit hypothesis would advance the importance of specific therapeutic intervention for (and monitoring of) cortical/meningeal inflammation in people with multiple sclerosis.