Abstract
Dengue virus infections are surging globally. Knowing who, where, and how many people are at risk of infection is crucial in determining means to protect them. Here, we compare three current approaches in measuring risk (two involving blood samples and one involving case counts) to estimate the risk of infection. Estimates derived from each method differed greatly. By accounting for rise and falls of antibodies following infections, noise in the antibody titer measurements, and heterogeneity in infection risk across ages, we reconciled the measurements. As measurements from blood samples and case counts are pillars in uncovering risk of most infectious diseases, our results signifies integrating these processes into risk measurements of pathogens beyond dengue virus.
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