Reconciling biome-wide conservation of an apex carnivore with land-use economics in the increasingly threatened Pantanal wetlands

Fernando R Tortato,Howard B Quigley,Carlos A Peres,Allison L Devlin,Rafael Hoogesteijn,Katia M P M B Ferraz,Fábio Bolzan,Thiago J Izzo

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-02142-0

Abstract

Conservation of carnivores involves finding solutions to minimize habitat loss and human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the nature of land-use economics can allow us to mitigate both threats. In the Pantanal, the two main economic activities are cattle ranching and ecotourism, each of which directly and indirectly affect the persistence of jaguars (Panthera onca). To understand how the geography of these economic activities is related to jaguar populations, we developed a jaguar distribution model (JDM), livestock density model, and ecotourism lodge density model for the Pantanal. Due to the recent wildfires within the Pantanal, we also assess the impact of burnt areas that are suitable for jaguars, cattle ranching, and tourism. Our JDM indicate that 64% of the Pantanal holds suitable habitat for jaguars. However, jaguar habitat suitability was positively correlated with ecotourism, but negatively correlated with areas most suitable for intensive cattle-ranching. This demonstrates a biome-wide scenario compatible with jaguar conservation. Of particular concern, recent wildfires overlap most suitable areas for jaguars. If wildfires become increasingly frequent, this would represent a serious threat to jaguars and many other wildlife populations. We emphasize the global importance of the Pantanal wetland ecoregion as a key stronghold for long-term jaguar conservation.

Highlights

The often synergistic effects of human-carnivore conflict and land-use transformation are leading threats for the world’s remaining large felid p opulations[1]
Land use transformation represents the main threat to the conservation of the jaguar (Panthera onca), the largest cat in the Americas
Land use in the Pantanal has been focused on extensive ranching of rustic cattle breeds at low stocking densities on native pastures, which are managed according to the annual hydrological cycle of floodwaters and d roughts[12,13]

Summary

Introduction

The often synergistic effects of human-carnivore conflict and land-use transformation are leading threats for the world’s remaining large felid p opulations[1]. Persistence of these species requires an understanding of their spatial relationships with the biophysical, social, and economic interfaces of potential conservation landscapes[2,3,4]. The wildfires of 2020 resulted in the mortality of millions of vertebrates and directly impacted the biodiversity of the Pantanal, including its megafauna such as the jaguar[21] This was a year of record-breaking wildfires, which burnt an area of over 4 million hectares, equivalent to one-third of the entire Pantanal biome. Regions affected by these fires included important protected areas for jaguar conservation, including the Encontro das Águas State P ark[23]

Methods

Results

Conclusion