Recognition and Prediction of Land Dynamics and Its Associated Impacts in Al-Qurayyat City and along Al-Shamal Train Pathway in Saudi Arabia

Seham S Al-Alola,Soha A Mohamed,Ibtesam I Alkadi,Ismail Y Ismail,Haya M Alogayell

doi:10.3390/su13179913

Seham S Al-Alola, Soha A Mohamed + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179913

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Abstract

Saudi Arabia has experienced substantial urban growth over the last few decades, transforming from rural to urban communities due to rapid economic growth. Saudi Arabia is ranked as one of the most urbanized countries, with more than 80% of its population existing in urban centers. Four Landsat imagery datasets acquired in 1989, 2002, 2013, and 2021 were used to estimate the dynamics of land cover and urban growth in Al-Qurayyat City and investigate the relationship between the construction of Al-Shamal train in 2011 and the land dynamics. The results emphasize a strong intercorrelation between the construction of the Al-Shamal train pathway and the land development and the rapid urbanization in Al-Qurayyat City. The results show that the urban and built-up area expanded from 1.96% to 7.25% between 1989 and 2021. Future prediction of land cover dynamics and urban growth in 2030 were estimated using the Markov chain and CA-Markov models. The findings of future prediction show that more than 60% of the total area of Al-Qurayyat City will transform into urban and built-up areas by 2030. The dramatic increase in urban and built-up areas and the subsequent reduction in other land cover types will impact the environmental sustainability of Al-Qurayyat City. The findings in this paper recommend smart growth, which guarantees environmentally friendly development for future land use/land cover planning in Al-Qurayyat City. This study will be beneficial to the urban planner and policymakers for proper sustainable development decisions by exploring the land cover changing pattern and the trends of urban expansion.

Highlights

Introduction published maps and institutional affilUrbanization is a phenomenon that involves urban areas growth, population growth, an increase in built-up areas, and a high density of the population [1]
The results indicate that urban areas increased in size by nearly 109.7 km2, and the area of the road structures increased by 26.29 km2 from 1973 to 2014
In 2002, the green cover was less than other years due to the olive harvesting, which starts in late of August

Summary

Introduction

Introduction published maps and institutional affilUrbanization is a phenomenon that involves urban areas growth, population growth, an increase in built-up areas, and a high density of the population [1]. About 54% of the world’s total population lives in urban areas, and the urban population around the world has grown rapidly from 746 million in 1950 to 7.8 billion in the year 2020 and is expected to be stand at between 9.4 and 10.2 billion by 2050 [2]. Saudi Arabia has witnessed a population growth throughout the last forty years, and this continues to increase due to the rapid economic development. The discovery of oil in 1960s in Saudi Arabia had resulted in an increase in the urban development and accelerated urban area growth [3]. According to Saudi General Authority for Statistics, the population size in Saudi Arabia increased from 5.8 million in 1950 to 9.8 million in 1980, 31.5 million in 2015, and 34.7 million in 2020.

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