Recession curve estimation for storm event separations

Abstract

An accurate recession curve model is important for separating individual flow events, which is especially difficult over catchments in regions with a maritime climate where frequent rainfall events cause the flows to rise before they reach the baseflow level. The traditional recession curve equations are based on static linear and nonlinear reservoir models. These models work quite well for ground water dominated recession curves, but not so well when the direct runoff is significant in the recession part. In this study, a new modelling methodology is explored based on self-adaptive parameters in the linear and nonlinear reservoir models. It has been found that the adaptive forms performed better than the static ones, especially when a window for the adaptive parameter estimation is properly selected. While the nonlinear adaptive model had better accuracy over the linear one, it could become unstable if its window is too narrow, indicating that more research work is needed to find an useful pattern for the window size. A comparison between the recession curve models and PDM model (a rainfall-runoff model) has shown that they agreed quite well in most winter events, but less so in the summer.