Abstract
Based on the daily precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected, categorized and calculated; the temporal and spatial patterns in these indices and their teleconnections with the large-scale circulations were analyzed by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test; and Sen’s slope estimator and linear regression for the period of 1960–2014 were calculated. The results indicated that all extreme precipitation indices had spatial patterns decreasing from the southeastern to the northwestern parts of the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR), except for the consecutive dry days (CDD), which exhibited a reverse spatial pattern. At the whole-region scale, most extreme precipitation indices showed an insignificant decreasing trend, with exceptions in the intensity indices (RX1day and RX5day) with a statistical significance at the 90% confidence level. The total annual precipitation showed a general shift towards a drier climate in the study area. Spatially, all indices for extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends at most stations, except for simple daily intensity index (SDII) and heavy precipitation days (R10). The change in extreme precipitation may be affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Better understanding of extreme precipitation for the BTSSR may be useful in the regional planning for ecological restoration and water management.
Highlights
Global change is the most important environmental issue and one of the greatest challenges facing humanity [1] as climate extremes are becoming more and more frequent [2,3]
All indices decrease from southeast to northwest across the study area; the exception was consecutive dry days (CDD), with a reverse spatial pattern
Source Region (BTSSR) during 1960–2014, the temporal and spatial trends of extreme precipitation were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator and linear regression
Summary
Global change is the most important environmental issue and one of the greatest challenges facing humanity [1] as climate extremes are becoming more and more frequent [2,3]. Climate extremes can seriously impact agriculture, water resources, urbanization, and drought [4] and drive changes in natural and human systems much more than average climate fluctuations [5,6]. Atmosphere 2017, 8, 83 on society and the natural environment, in recent decades, more attention has been paid to changes in extreme climate events, extreme precipitation [7,8]. Economic, and ecological impacts of extreme precipitation events, it is essential that hydrological, agricultural, and ecological managers and policy-makers have the information needed to better evaluate temporal and spatial variations in extreme precipitation. Changes in extreme precipitation have been documented through regional differences at global and regional scales. Many studies have shown increasing trends in some areas, such as Central and Southern Asia [9], the Tibetan Plateau [10], northwestern and southwestern
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