Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate

Abstract

Contrary to assertions of widespread irreversible desertification in the African Sahel, a recent increase in seasonal greenness over large areas of the Sahel has been observed, which has been interpreted as a recovery from the great Sahelian droughts. This research investigates temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation greenness and rainfall variability in the African Sahel and their interrelationships based on analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the period 1982–2003 and gridded satellite rainfall estimates. While rainfall emerges as the dominant causative factor for the increase in vegetation greenness, there is evidence of another causative factor, hypothetically a human-induced change superimposed on the climate trend.