Recent trends in non‐native, invertebrate, plant pest establishments in Great Britain, accounting for time lags in reporting

Abstract

Abstract Monitoring the establishment of plant pests enables national plant protection organizations to understand trends in biosecurity threats and thus modify their regulatory and management responses. A dataset of the 267 invertebrate pests establishing in Great Britain was compiled for the period 1970–2013. The number of establishments observed ranged between 1 and 13 per year. A study of time lags between the detection and reporting of new establishments showed that approximately 50% of new plant pests were reported after 2 years and 95% after 10 years. Therefore, the number of very recent establishments (and hence establishment rates) is underestimated. Correcting for the reporting lag, the annual rate of establishment was stable until the late 1980s, at approximately four species per year. Afterwards, the mean annual rate approached nine species per year. Approximately 50% of established species occurred only on hosts in the ornamental sector, approximately 25% in both wild and ornamental situations, and 25% only in the wild. Less than 5% of species pose a threat to economic sectors.