Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over southern Montenegro (1951–2010)

D Burić,V Ducić,M Doderović,J Dragojlović,J Luković

doi:10.5194/nhess-14-67-2014

Abstract

Abstract. Montenegro so far has been poorly investigated in terms of climate extremes. The aim of this paper was to analyse the extreme ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) temperature indices in the Mediterranean region of Montenegro for the period of 1951–2010. Four stations in the coastal area of Montenegro have been analysed: Herceg Novi, Ulcinj, Budva and Bar. Two periods (before 1980 and after 1980) were separately investigated in this study due to a well-known climate shift that occurred in the late 1970s. Seven indices of temperature extremes have been chosen. The trend was analysed using a Mann–Kendall non-parametric test, while the slope was estimated using Sen's slope estimator. A negative trend has been calculated for cold nights and cold days at almost all stations. The most significant positive trends were obtained for warm conditions. The two separately investigated periods have shown contrasting temperature trends.

Highlights

There has been considerable interest in the study of temperature and precipitation extremes at different scales (Zolina, 2008; Durao et al, 2010; Ceasar et al, 2011) due to their great impact on agriculture, water resources, industry, environment, and society
Due to a non-uniform magnitude of extreme temperature changes identified over the entire Mediterranean basin, many studies focused on particular countries
Toreti and Desiato (2008) analysed changes in temperature extremes over Italy and showed a cooling trend until the end of the 1970s followed by a warming trend over the last 25 yr

Summary

Introduction

There has been considerable interest in the study of temperature and precipitation extremes at different scales (Zolina, 2008; Durao et al, 2010; Ceasar et al, 2011) due to their great impact on agriculture, water resources, industry, environment, and society. Many authors have made an effort to examine extreme temperature trends in the Mediterranean region (Klein Tank and Können, 2003; Kostopoulou and Jones, 2005; Della-Marta et al, 2007; Kuglitsch et al, 2010; Efthymiadis et al, 2011) Most of their results suggest an increased frequency and duration of warm events. Recent analysis of trends in temperature indices over Serbia and its relationship to large-scale circulations conducted by Unkaševicand Tošic (2013) suggested that the Serbian climate generally became warmer over the last 61 yr.

Study area

Data and methodology

Conclusions