Recent Mortality Trends and Differentials

Abstract

T HE spectacular rise in the birth rate during the war and postwar years has all but overshadowed the very significant decline in mortality. Except for the upward movement in the death rate in 1943 due to an influenza epidemic, the age-adjusted death rate for the continental United States declined steadily each year during the past decade. New record lows in mortality were established every succeeding year. In all, mortality as measured by the age-adjusted death rate' declined about 18 per cent in the 10 years between 1940 and 1949. In the previous decade, the decrease in mortality was 15 per cent. For the first time in the history of the country, the crude death rate dropped to 10.0 per 1,000 population in 1946. In 1948, the crude death rate further declined to 9.9, and to 9.7 in 1949. If the death rate prevailing before World War II had continued through the decade, there would have been about 1,300,000 fewer people enumerated in the 1950 census of population. The death rates during the war years are difficult to evaluate. The withdrawal of men from the civilian population for military service, and the large shifts in population to defense areas created a problem in the analysis of mortality rates. For example, there was the problem of residence allocation of decedents who were stationed in military establishments and away from home at the time of death. Because most of these deaths resulted from the hazards of the area in which the men were stationed, it was decided that mortality statistics would be more meaningful if the deaths of members of the armed forces occurring in the United States were allocated to the military station as the place of residence. Then, there was the question of the population base for computing death rates. Since mortality statistics for the United States did not include deaths of the armed forces overseas, the logical population base was the de facto population. The de facto population was also the logical base for the computation of death rates for the individual States, because the deaths among the armed forces stationed in camps within the State were allocated there as the place of residence. The results of these computational procedures correctly indicate the