Recent Lake Area Changes in Central Asia

Haijun Liu,Qifei Zhang,Yaning Chen,Yupeng Li,Zhaoxia Ye

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-52396-y

Abstract

Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500 m spatial resolution global water product data, Least Squares Method (LSM) was applied to analyze changes in the area of 14 lakes in Central Asia from 2001 to 2016. Interannual changes in lake area, along with seasonal change trends and influencing factors, were studied for the months of April, July and September. The results showed that the total lakes area differed according to interannual variations and was largest in April and smallest in September, measuring −684.9 km2/a, −870.6 km2/a and −827.5 km2/a for April, July and September, respectively. The change rates for the total area of alpine lakes during the same three months were 31.1 km2/a, 29.8 km2/a and 30.6 km2/a, respectively, while for lakes situated on plains, the change rates were −716.1 km2/a, −900.5 km2/a, and −858 km2/a, respectively. Overall, plains lakes showed a declining trend and alpine lakes showed an expanding trend, the latter likely due to the warmer and wetter climate. Furthermore, there was a high correlation (r = 0.92) between area changes rate of all alpine lakes and the lakes basin supply coefficient, although there was low correlation (r = 0.43) between area changes rate of all alpine lakes area and glacier area/lake area. This indicates that lakes recharge via precipitation may be greater than lakes recharge via glacier meltwater. The shrinking of area changes for all plains lakes in the study region was attributable to climate change and human activities.

Highlights

Lakes have a strong influence on both human beings and the ecological environment, providing water for local residents, developing fishery production, and playing an important role in agricultural irrigation[1,2,3]
The change in total area of alpine lakes for the months of April, July and September (Fig. 2b) was largest in April, with little difference in the area during July and September
The research conclusion was consistent with Tan et al.[3] on the changes of lake area in Central Asia along the Silk Road, the plain lakes tended to shrink, such as Aral Sea, Ebi Lake and Sarygamysh Lake

Summary

Introduction

Lakes have a strong influence on both human beings and the ecological environment, providing water for local residents, developing fishery production, and playing an important role in agricultural irrigation[1,2,3]. The size of a lake exerts a regulating effect on the climate in the surrounding area[5] by increasing or decreasing local air humidity and affecting precipitation in the lake basin. It is critical for the development of socioeconomic status of countries in Central Asia and for their ecological environmental protection to study variation of lakes area and analyze internal driving factors contributing to those changes. Climate change (e.g., changes in temperature and precipitation) directly impacts water cycle changes in a lake basin, while human activities (e.g., agricultural irrigation) can change the water cycle process in a lake system.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion