Recent Economic Developments in Communist China

Abstract

Data on general economic trends in mainland China in recent years remain almost completely a Western guess, as no official government figures of a comprehensive nature have been released by Peking since 1960. This is not as unfortunate as it might appear, however, since those data which were released in earlier years, including subsequent revisions, were clearly exaggerated and misleading. This article is an endeavor to put together such data and guesses as are available on major trends in agriculture, industry and trade. These data would appear to constitute the most generally accepted estimates of trends in the Chinese economy. In the case of foodgrain production an attempt has been made to test the estimates for consistency with subjective observations of the status of food supplies and estimates of demand trends. The Agricultural Factor Agricultural output of all major crops except potatoes fell sharply during 1959-61. (See Table I). This was due mainly to the tremendous disorganization of the rural economy, the blunting of producer incentives as a result of the ill-fated communalization of the agricultural sector, and the excessive concentration of resources in uneconomic industrialization and construction. Faced with an agricultural disaster, the regime quickly backtracked on both fronts. With a relaxation in the commune program and a