Abstract
This study addresses changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation from 1982 to 2016 from three meteorological stations around Calakmul, Mexico, a landscape balancing biodiversity conservation and smallholder agricultural production. Five methods were used to assess changes in precipitation: the Mann-Kendall test of annual and wet season trends; a fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season; the Gini Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation; Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) to evaluate precipitation intensity; and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to identify the deficit or surplus of rainfall compared with the long-term mean. Overall, rainfall trends in Calakmul over this period indicate a slight increase, though results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) all indicate that rainfall has become more intense and more unevenly distributed throughout the year. There was no significant trend in the onset date of rainfall or the RAI overall, though there were more pronounced crests and troughs from 2004 to 2016. Higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, suggest that rainfall in the Calakmul region has become more extreme. This research informs for management and livelihood strategies in the local region and offers insights for analyses of regional patterns of seasonal precipitation events in tropical landscapes worldwide.
Highlights
Recent changes to global and regional climates, exacerbated by anthropogenic activity, have accelerated global hydrological cycles, altering the overall magnitude of precipitation and its seasonal distribution, interannual variability, intensity, frequency, and duration worldwide (Allan and Soden 2008; Easterling et al 2000; Karl and Trenberth 2003; Trenberth et al 2007; Zeng et al 1999)
By evaluating changes in the temporal distribution and intensity of rainfall from 1982 to 2016 in the municipality of Calakmul in the southern Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, this study investigates both an overall decrease in regional precipitation and whether changes in the onset of the wet season, the distribution and intensity of rainfall, and negative rainfall anomalies have become more frequent, through three hypotheses: 1) The intensity and distribution of total and wet season rainfall has changed from 1982 to 2016, independent of the total precipitation during this period
Scientists, academics, and decision makers have paid increased attention to the risks associated with climate change, including increased uncertainty regarding food production (Ewert et al 2015; Reddy and Pachepsky 2000)
Summary
Recent changes to global and regional climates, exacerbated by anthropogenic activity, have accelerated global hydrological cycles, altering the overall magnitude of precipitation and its seasonal distribution, interannual variability, intensity, frequency, and duration worldwide (Allan and Soden 2008; Easterling et al 2000; Karl and Trenberth 2003; Trenberth et al 2007; Zeng et al 1999). As local water resources depend on the quantity, and on the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation, any changes in these characteristics may pose significant economic, ecological, and societal threats (Li et al 2011; Qian et al 2003; Zhang et al 2009). Reliable predictions of precipitation play a crucial role in agricultural productivity (Adams et al 1998; Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal 2013; Rosenberg 1992), strongly influencing the ability to accommodate the world’s growing food needs (Lal 2013; Risbey et al 1999; Ziervogel and Ericksen 2010)
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