Abstract
Precipitation and mean temperature trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scale for Castilla and León during the period 1961–2004 were analysed in the present study. The main aims of this paper were to find out if these tendencies differ from those pointed out for this region in a previous research for the period 1961–1997 and to establish, based on bioclimatic models, possible changes on the potential natural vegetation of this territory if these trends do not change in future. Magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines while the statistical significance was determined by the Mann—Kendall test. Magnitude and sign of rainfall and temperature trends over the last four decades have been essentially the same than those concerning to the period 1961–1997. It can be concluded that if these trends keep in future areas with temperate climate could increase in this region. In this situation, deciduous forests could extend their distribution limits, thus replacing some semi—deciduous and evergreen ones.
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