Abstract
Abstract. In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr), trend analysis (linear regression model) including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q). According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000): Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate) to 2.95°C (Tokyo). The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations.
Highlights
“Global warming” and “climate change” are major keywords in the present-day global change discussion
The strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations
The temperature increase is widespread over the globe, spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature trends can be found with highest values in northern latitudes; land regions have warmed faster than the oceans (IPCC, 2007)
Summary
“Global warming” and “climate change” are major keywords in the present-day global change discussion. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 30 percent since 1750 These developments have the potential of raising global surface temperatures and, in consequence, they impact other parts of the climate system. Some studies have analysed temperature records in Japan in recent years: A general warming was found, for example by Yue and Hashino (2003) who showed increasing trends of monthly temperature in Japan for 46 stations from 1900–1996. In a recent paper Fujibe et al (2007) reported about longterm changes of temperature extremes and the day-to-day variability in Japan by analysing the records of 17 climate stations (1931–2005). Maximum temperature shows increasing trends at a lower rate (0.08◦C/decade for 1931–2005 and 0.4–0.5◦C/decade for 1981–2005); besides, there is no trend in the day-to-day variability (Fujibe et al, 2007). Kurihara (2000) reported of a quasi-six-year fluctuation of high summer temperatures in Japan which are related to the fluctuations of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific Ocean
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