Recent changes of rice heat stress in Jiangxi province, southeast China.

Abstract

Around the intensity, frequency, duration, accumulated temperature, and even extremes of high-temperature events, nine selected temperature-related indices were used to explore the space and time changes of rice heat stress in Jiangxi province, southeast China. Several statistical methods including Mann-Kendall trend test (M-K test) and principal component analysis (PCA) were used in this study, and main results were listed as follows: (1) The changes in the intensity indices for high-temperature events were more significant, it was mainly embodied in that more than 80% of stations had positive trends. (2) R-mode PCA was applied to the multiannual average values of nine selected indices of whole stations, and the results showed that the higher hazard for rice heat stress could be mainly detected in the middle and northeast area of Jiangxi. (3) S-mode PCA was applied to the integrated heat stress index series, and the results demonstrated that Jiangxi could be divided into four sub-regions with different variability in rice heat stress. However, all the sub-regions are dominated by increasing tendencies in rice heat stress since 1990. (4) Further analysis indicated that the western north Pacific sub-tropical high (WPSH) had the significant dominant influence on the rice heat stress in Jiangxi province.