Recent changes in sea level and their possible causes

Abstract

A new analysis of ‘global’ sea level has been made that largely avoids space/time bias of previous works. A coherent pattern of increasing relative sea level (RSL) was found to exist on average at all stations analyzed between 1903–1969. Subject to considerable assumption, the rate of RSL increase associated with this pattern was 15 cm/century. A similar analysis of the period 1930–1975 again showed RSL increasing on average everywhere but in the western half of the North Pacific Ocean. Decrease of RSL in this area was substantiated by hydrographic data. Thus in recent years the concept of a ‘global’ sea level rise is not supported. The temporal behavior of thenear global signals from both time periods was well approximated by a simple linear trend. There was no evidence of a more rapid rise in RSL in recent years. Potential causes of the above RSL change were investigated. Changes in the position of the earth's axis of rotation support the idea that the RSL change was due to approximately equal melting of Greenland/Antarctica. Changes in the length of day only marginally support this idea. However, other attractive geophysical explanations for variations in both these astronomical parameters exist. Observed change in sea surface temperature (SST), if representative of reasonable changes in vertical thermal structure, could give the observed RSL change. However, the SST data are likely biased instrumentally toward increasing trend. Also, thermal expansion of the oceans would not significantly affect the rotational parameters although changes in these parameters could be due to non-RSL related processes. Changes in ocean circulation and/or subsidence along all the coastal margins simultaneously seem unlikely causes of the observed change in RSL. In summary, it is not possible at this time to explain reliably the apparent increase in RSL.