Abstract
Agriculture is one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change impact. The main economy of the study area is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal and annual rainfall amount is extremely critical because the study areas socio economic functioning particularly, food production. Changes in annual, June–September and March–May rainfall and rainy days herein (defined as a day with rainfall greater than 0.1 mm) have been analyzed based on 4 stations located in North Oromia zone (R4) of different climatic zones for the common period 1982–2014. The aim of this study was to characterize the climate of the study areas. This study was conducted in Northern Oromia region part of Ethiopia. Historical climate data (1982-2014), were collected from National Meteorological Agency. Instat+v.3.37 and Excel 2010 were used for analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trend analysis. Time series anomaly plots for temperature showed that the mean maximum temperature over Filiklik, Werejarso, Gerbeguracha and Fitche has increased by about 0.5 to 2ºc, 0.5 to 1.55oc and 0.5 to 1.5oc and 0.5 to 1.5 oc respectively. Whereas minimum temperature also increased by 0.5 to 2oc, 0.5 to 1.5oc and 0.5 to 1.5oc over Filiklik, Gerbeguracha and Fitche respectively but in the past few recent years minimum temperature showed slight decrement at Werejarso. While the rainfall amount and number of rainy days showed slight variability during the period of 1982-2014. The number of rainy days shows that decrement by 5.8% and 4.2% over Filiklik and Werejarso. On the hand numbers of rainy days were stationary over Gerbeguracha and Fitche for the last thirty two years. Strengthen of further research on the impact of climate change and variability on different socio-economic activities of the societies is very crucial.
Highlights
The climate of Africa is warmer than it was 100 years ago and model-based predictions of future GHG induced climate change for the continent clearly suggest that this warming will continue and in most scenarios accelerate (Hulme, 2001)
The UNDP Climate Change profile for Ethiopia shows that the mean annual temperature has increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28°C per decade (McSweeney., 2010)
The intra-seasonal variations in rainfall distribution during crop growing periods, without a change in total seasonal amount, can cause substantial reductions in yields of cereals, including maize. This means that the number of rainy days during the growing period is as important, as that of the total seasonal rainfall overall, rainfall variability costs Ethiopia over a‐third of its growth potential and is likely to reduce it by 38%, and to increase poverty by 25% over a 12‐ year period (Bank, 2010)
Summary
The climate of Africa is warmer than it was 100 years ago and model-based predictions of future GHG induced climate change for the continent clearly suggest that this warming will continue and in most scenarios accelerate (Hulme, 2001). Between 1951 and 2006 annual minimum temperature in Ethiopia has been increased by about 0.37°C every decade. The UNDP Climate Change profile for Ethiopia shows that the mean annual temperature has increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28°C per decade (McSweeney., 2010). The average number of cold days and nights has decreased by 21 (5.8% of days) and 41 (11.2% of nights), respectively. These reductions have mainly occurred in the months of September to November (McSweeney., 2010)
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