Recent atmospheric drying in Siberia is not unprecedented over the last 1,500\xa0years

O. V. Churakova Sidorova,M. Saurer,C. Corona,M. V. Fonti,E. A. Vaganov,M. Stoffel,S. Guillet,R. T. W. Siegwolf

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-71656-w

Abstract

Newly developed millennial δ13C larch tree-ring chronology from Siberia allows reconstruction of summer (July) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) changes in a temperature-limited environment. VPD increased recently, but does not yet exceed the maximum values reconstructed during the Medieval Warm Anomaly. The most humid conditions in the Siberian North were recorded in the Early Medieval Period and during the Little Ice Age. Increasing VPD under elevated air temperature affects the hydrology of these sensitive ecosystems by greater evapotranspiration rates. Further VPD increases will significantly affect Siberian forests most likely leading to drought and forest mortality even under additional access of thawed permafrost water. Adaptation strategies are needed for Siberian forest ecosystems to protect them in a warming world.

Highlights

Developed millennial δ13C larch tree-ring chronology from Siberia allows reconstruction of summer (July) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) changes in a temperature-limited environment
Abrupt shifts from 0.8‰ up to 3.2 ‰ and an increase in the standard deviation (SD) from 0.2 to 0.9 of mean carbon isotope values are observed for the periods coefficient of efficiency (CE) 780–810 and CE 1060–1090 when compared to the climate norm (Fig. 1, Table S3a)
Reconstructed July VPD showed highest values during the Medieval Climate Anomaly period (800–1070) in the Siberian North compared to the period (1870–2004)

Summary

Introduction

Developed millennial δ13C larch tree-ring chronology from Siberia allows reconstruction of summer (July) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) changes in a temperature-limited environment. Climate models project drastic changes in climate even under the optimistic RCP 2.6 scenario for the Siberian regions for the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005: (1) a strong temperature increase and reduced moisture availability leading to forest die-back and northward shift of boreal ecosystems[20], and (2) a strong temperature increase up to 6 °C with increased precipitation bringing more frequent flooding e vents[21]. Based on these projections by the climatic models it becomes clear that the recent rapid climatic warming propose a heterogeneous changes in precipitation patterns.

Methods

Results

Conclusion