Abstract
A major task for researchers in the 21st century is to predict how climate-mediated stressors such as wildfires may affect biodiversity under climate change. Previous model predictions typically do not address non-stationarity in climate-fire relationships across time and space. In this study, we applied spatially-explicit non-stationary area burned projection models and high-severity fire probability models to evaluate recent and future trends in area burned, as well as risk of high-severity fire in recent times, across the ranges of three spotted owl subspecies in western United States. Results suggest that the proportion of area burned will increase within the range of all three subspecies under climate change. Additionally, there are inter- and intra-subspecies variations in percent area burned and high-severity fire risk. We recommend more studies to be conducted to understand the interaction and synergistic effects of climate change and wildfire on the spotted owl, especially in regions that are understudied such as Mexico.
Highlights
Climate change is one of the most pressing threats to biodiversity in the twenty-first century (Thomas et al, 2004)
Annual percent area burned during the recent period was
The Mexican spotted owl range was projected to have the greatest increase in annual percent area burned compared to the other subspecies ranges, reaching as high as 0.7 and 2.7% in the 2040s and 2080s, respectively
Summary
Climate change is one of the most pressing threats to biodiversity in the twenty-first century (Thomas et al, 2004). Many species, especially those with low tolerance for rising temperature, directly suffer from global warming trends and are vulnerable to extinction. Climate change affects species by altering ecosystem processes such as fire disturbance regimes (Flannigan et al, 2009). Climate change and wildfire can synergize to negatively affect biodiversity. Understanding wildfire risks under current and future climate conditions is critical for effective management and
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