Abstract
Climate change’s effect on sea surface temperature (SST) at the regional scale vary due to driving forces that include potential changes in ocean circulation and internal climate variability, ice cover, thermal stability, and ocean mixing layer depth. For a better understanding of future effects, it is important to analyze historical changes in SST at regional scales and test prediction techniques. In this study, the variation in SST across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman (PG&GO) during the past four decades was analyzed and predicted to the end of 21st century using a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) model. As input, daily optimum interpolation SST anomaly (DOISSTA) data, available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, were used. Descriptive analyses and POD results demonstrated a gradually increasing trend in DOISSTA in the PG&GO over the past four decades. The spatial distribution of DOISSTA indicated: (1) that shallow parts of the Persian Gulf have experienced minimum and maximum values of DOISSTA and (2) high variability in DOISSTA in shallow parts of the Persian Gulf, including some parts of southern and northwestern coasts. Prediction of future SST using the POD model revealed the highest warming during summer in the entire PG&GO by 2100 and the lowest warming during fall and winter in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, respectively. The model indicated that monthly SST in the Persian Gulf may increase by up to 4.3 °C in August by the turn of the century. Similarly, mean annual changes in SST across the PG&GO may increase by about 2.2 °C by 2100.
Highlights
High DOISST occurred in 1998–1999, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2015, years that were subjected to El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) that eventually led to unusually large DOISST
This study evaluated variations in daily optimum interpolation SST anomaly (DOISSTA) across Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman (PG&GO) during the past 34 years using descriptive statistics and predicted Sea surface temperature (SST) by 2100 using a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) model
Investigations of DOISSTA based on statistical indices revealed an increasing trend in mean, minimum, and maximum DOISSTA of about 1 ̊C during the 34-year study period, likely due to the impacts of climate change
Summary
Several studies have demonstrated that SST has increased at global scale during the 20th century [11,12,13], while regional studies in some parts of the world have found that shallow waters such as gulfs may display a larger variation in SST increase compared with deep water areas [14]. This may be a result of the relatively lower water depth in shallow water bodies [15,16,17]. The decadal rate of SST increase in Narragansett Bay, USA, which is about 1.1 ̊C, is four times greater than that of the main ocean [18]
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