Receiver operating characteristic curves of ultrasonographic estimates of fetal weight for prediction of fetal growth restriction in prolonged pregnancies

Abstract

Objective: Recent studies have documented increased perinatal morbidity and mortality rates in the growth-restricted postterm fetus. Our purpose was to evaluate the receiver operating characteristic curve of ultrasonographically estimated fetal weight as a predictor of fetal growth restriction in prolonged pregnancies. Study Design: Fetal weight was estimated ultrasonographically within 9 days of delivery (mode 1 day) in members of a cohort of 410 patients with prolonged pregnancies (>41 weeks). Estimated fetal weights were compared with birth weights in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting birth weights <10th percentile (3125 g in this population) and <5th percentile (2930 g in this population) were 0.89 and 0.96, respectively. Both areas were significantly different from an area indicating a useless test. The estimated fetal weight values corresponding to the inflection points for the receiver operating characteristic curves predicting birth weights <10th percentile and <5th percentile were 3370 and 3200 g, respectively. With estimated fetal weight at less than these test cutoff values, the relative risks for a fetus to have a birth weight <10th percentile or <5th percentile were 14.6 (95% confidence interval, 6.25-33.8) and 89.8 (95% confidence interval, 12.1-665), respectively. Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curves resulted in improved test characteristics relative to using the actual 10th and 5th birth weight percentiles as cutoff values for estimated fetal weight (relative risk of 14.6 vs 9.5 and 89.8 vs 26.0, respectively). Conclusions: Ultrasonographic estimation of fetal weight is a useful test for predicting fetal growth restriction in prolonged pregnancies. Future studies should evaluate whether intervention on the basis of this identification results in improved perinatal outcome. (Am J Obstet Gynecol 1999;181:1133-8.)