Receiver operating characteristic analysis using a novel combined thermal and ultrasound imaging for assessment of disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis

Abstract

We aim to determine whether combined thermal and ultrasound (CTUS) imaging can identify rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with at least moderate disease activity (DAS28 > 3.2). Temperature differences of maximum (Tmax), average (Tavg) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures from a control temperature at 22 joints (bilateral hands) were summed up to derive the respective MAX, AVG and MIN per patient. MAX (PD), AVG (PD) and MIN (PD) are CTUS results derived by multiplying MAX, AVG and MIN by a factor of 2 when a patient’s total ultrasound power Doppler (PD) joint inflammation score > median score, which otherwise remained unchanged. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine whether CTUS imaging can identify patients with DAS28 > 3.2. In this cross-sectional study, 814 joints were imaged among 37 RA patients (mean disease duration, 31 months). CTUS (but not single modality) imaging parameters were all significantly greater comparing patients with DAS28 > 3.2 versus those with DAS28 ≤ 3.2 (all P < 0.01). Area under the ROC curves (AUCs) using cut-off levels of ≥ 94.5, ≥ 64.6 and ≥ 42.3 in identifying patients with DAS28 > 3.2 were 0.73 , 0.76 and 0.76 for MAX (PD), AVG (PD) and MIN (PD), respectively (with sensitivity ranging from 58 to 61% and specificity all 100%). The use of CTUS in detecting a greater severity of joint inflammation among patients with at least moderate disease activity (DAS28 > 3.2) appears promising and will require further validation in independent RA cohorts.