Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.
Highlights
Mosquito blood feeding and concurrent expectoration creates a wound and a delivery system by which pathogens pass through vertebrate skin to infect vertebrate blood and other target tissues causing diseases such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, West Nile, Rift Valley fever, and chikungunya
The practical issues associated with measuring VC spurred more pragmatic approaches for malaria, and in 1980, the WHO returned to using the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) as a single, comprehensive measure of transmission intensity.[29]
Different mosquito-borne pathogens interact with their human host in very different ways with important consequences for within-host dynamics: for example compare the microparasitic dynamics of chikungunya[67]; interactions among four microparasitic serotypes of dengue[54,68]; the macroparasitic accumulation of filarial worms[60]; and the dynamics of superinfection with genotypically and phenotypically diverse malaria parasites.[69]
Summary
Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. Quantitative nature of control targets and policy for mosquito-borne diseases, dynamic models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission (MBPT) are indispensable tools for investigating these questions.[8,9,10,11]. We extend that review to critique the models, to look at metrics of transmission, and to look at the way those metrics have been combined with models to better inform and more productively shape disease control policies
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