Abstract
The literature on systematic aspects of goal scoring in football is rich, while little is known about random influences. This study focuses on an unsystematic element of goal scoring, namely rebounds, where a shot that bounces back from another player or the goal creates contested opportunities. Aspects including causes, match situation, player positioning and pitch zones were investigated for 554 rebound goals from seven seasons (2012/2013–2018/2019) of the English Premier League. Rebounds were predominantly caused by short distance and defensive errors, with goalkeepers playing a crucial role. Interestingly, the superiority of home teams and stronger teams to score significantly more goals than away teams and weaker teams can also be observed for rebound goals. Rebound goals are particularly prevalent in zones close to the goal, more prevalent after corners than non-rebound goals and associated with a high number of players in the penalty box. Overall, high similarities exist between rebound and non-rebound goals, while differences in match situations and spatial patterns suggest unique characteristics of rebound goals. These results are in line with the notion of systematicity and randomness concurrently contributing to success in football. More research appears useful to further disentangle the influence of both factors.
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