Abstract
This paper analyses aggregate time-series data to estimate the direct rebound effect in UK road freight over the period 1970–2014. We investigate 25 different model specifications, conduct a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests to evaluate the robustness of these specifications and estimate the rebound effect using three different elasticities. Using the mean of the statistically significant estimates from these specifications, we estimate a direct rebound effect of 61% - which is larger than previous estimates in the literature and almost twice as large as the consensus estimate of direct rebound effects in road passenger transport. Using the mean of the estimates from our most robust models, we estimate a slightly lower direct rebound effect of 49%. Our estimates are fairly consistent between different model specifications and different metrics, although individual estimates range from 21% to 137%. We also find that an increasing proportion of UK road freight is being undertaken by foreign registered vehicles, and that increases in the vehicle weight limits have encouraged more freight activity. We highlight the significant limitations imposed by the use of aggregate time series data and recommend that further studies in this area employ data from vehicle use surveys.
Highlights
In 2015, freight transport accounted for 6% of global energy consumption and one third of transport energy consumption (IEA, 2016)
Road transport by heavy goods vehicle (HGV) accounted for only around one quarter of global freight activity, it was responsible for nearly three quarters of energy use for freight transport and around one quarter of energy use for road transport
Energy consumption for road freight has been affected by additional changes in logistics, driving patterns, road congestion, the amount of empty running and the average size, fuel efficiency and load factor of HGVs (Sorrell et al, 2009, 2012)
Summary
In 2015, freight transport accounted for 6% of global energy consumption and one third of transport energy consumption (IEA, 2016). While increased consumption of material goods tends to increase freight activity, the relationship between the two is mediated by a range of factors, several of which have undergone major changes in recent years. These include, for example, shifts towards lighter commodities, wider sourcing of products, the growth of just-in-time distribution, increases in packaging volume and greater concentration of manufacturing and stockholding (Lehtonen, 2008). Rebound effects in road transport are commonly investigated through econometric analyses of aggregate data on fuel use and travel patterns This approach allows the rebound effect to be estimated from one or more elasticities, derived from the estimated parameters of the regression equation. In the empirical work below, we choose the first of these measures
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