Rebels at the Gates: Civil War Battle Locations, Movement, and Openings for Diplomacy

Abstract

In this paper, I build upon the conflict management, civil war, and bargaining literatures to develop and test a theoretical model that links openings for diplomacy to where civil war battles occur and how these locations change over time. I argue that the locations and movements of civil war battles provide information to both governments and rebels that influences their willingness to engage in mediation and negotiation. By identifying how civil war battles influence the willingness of warring sides to participate in diplomacy, I suggest that it is possible to identify other windows of opportunity for effective conflict management beyond waiting for a conflict to evolve into a hurting stalemate. The results of my analysis of 46 African civil conflicts shows that battle locations, battle velocity, and battle dispersion each influence the occurrence and outcomes of peace talks.