Abstract
Subject Implications for Eritrea from the defection of Ethiopian opposition group. Significance Earlier in September, Mola Asgedom, chairman of the Ethiopian rebel group Tigray People's Democratic Movement (TPDM), and a large contingent of fighters defected from Eritrea back to Ethiopia. Since 2001, the Eritrean-backed insurgent group has been utilised by Asmara as an important tool in its regional proxy war with Addis Ababa. The defection could shift regional relations and risk greater domestic instability in Eritrea. Impacts Despite the confirmation of Eritrean weakness, Ethiopia will push to ensure that UN sanctions remain in place. To reduce the diplomatic might of Ethiopia, Asmara will seek to diversify foreign relations, particularly with Gulf States and Europe. The mining sector will continue to be a major source of revenue for the Eritrean government, and is on course to modestly expand.
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