Abstract
Earlier versions of the paper has been presented to the 2016 convention of the International Studies Association, the 2016 Swedish National Conference on Peace and Conflict Research, and the 2016 convention of the American Political Science Association. Thanks to Charity Butcher, Stephen Marr, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Michael J. Reese for comments on earlier versions of the paper, and to Jennifer C. Boylan, Ryan P. Whittingham, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, and Kristina Petrova for excellent research assistance. The research has been funded by the Research Council of Norway, project 217995/V10, the University of Florida Foundation in support of the Raymond and Miriam Ehrlich Chair, Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, grant P16-0124:1, and the Swedish Research Council, grant 2012-5562. Jan Teorell also wishes to acknowledge support from the Wenner-Gren Foundation and the Fernand Braudel Senior Fellowship at the European University Institute, Florence, which made it possible for him to work on this paper.
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