Reassessing the chronology of the Mississippian Central Illinois River Valley using Bayesian analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACTChronology building has long served as a major focus of archaeological interest in the Central Illinois River valley (CIRV) of west-central Illinois. Previous methods have relied primarily upon relative dating techniques (e.g., ceramic seriation) as a means of sorting out temporal relationships between sites. This study represents the first investigation into the utility of Bayesian techniques (which consider radiocarbon dates in context with archaeological information) in the CIRV. We present the results of a detailed ceramic seriation of the region, data that we use as a priori information in our Bayesian models. We then offer contiguous, overlapping, and sequential models of site occupations in the Mississippian CIRV, review the output and appropriateness of each model, and consider their implications for the pace of sociopolitical change in the region.