Reassessing Eastern Mediterranean Tectonics and Earthquake Hazard From the 365 CE Earthquake

Abstract

AbstractThe hallmark of great earthquakes in the Mediterranean is the 21 July 365 CE earthquake and tsunami that destroyed cities and killed thousands of people throughout the Eastern Mediterranean. This event is intriguing because most Mediterranean subduction forearcs exhibit pervasive crustal extension and minimal definitive evidence exists for great subduction megathrust earthquakes, consistent with weak seismic coupling. This conundrum has led many to favor rupture of a previously unrecognized upper plate splay fault south of Crete in an M w 8.3–8.5 earthquake, uplifting a Cretan Holocene paleoshoreline by up to 9 m. Similar source mechanisms have been adapted for the region, which are commonly used for seismic and tsunami hazard estimation. We present an alternative model for Holocene paleoshoreline uplift and the 365 CE tsunami that centers on known active normal fault systems offshore of western and southwestern Crete. We use new and published radiocarbon dates and historical records to show that uplift of the Cretan paleoshoreline likely occurred during two or more earthquakes within 2–3 centuries. Visco‐elastic dislocation modeling demonstrates that the rupture of these normal faults fits observed data as well as reverse fault models but requires reduced slip and lower cumulative earthquake energy release (∼M w 7.9). Tsunami modeling shows that normal‐fault ruptures produce strong tsunamis that better match historical reports than a hypothetical reverse fault. Our findings collectively favor the interpretation that damaging earthquakes and tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean can originate on normal faults, highlighting the potential hazard from tsunamigenic upper plate normal fault earthquakes.