Abstract
In a military environment a ground based air defence operator is required to evaluate the tactical situation in real-time and protect Defended Assets (DAs) on the ground against aerial threats by assigning available Weapon Systems (WSs) to engage enemy aircraft. Since this aerial environment requires rapid operational planning and decision making in stress situations, the associated responsibilities are typically divided between a number of operators and computerized systems that aid these operators during the decision making processes. One such a Decision Support System (DSS), a threat evaluation and weapon assignment system, assigns threat values to aircraft (with respect to DAs) in real-time and uses these values to propose possible engagements of observed enemy aircraft by anti-aircraft WSs. In this paper a design of the threat evaluation part of such a DSS is put forward. The design follows the structured approach suggested in [Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2007, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, ORiON, 23(2), pp. 151-187], phasing in a suite of increasingly complex qualitative and quantitative model components as more (reliable) data become available.
Highlights
The story of modern warfare begins with Napoleon
At the lowest level of sophistication we propose a suite of binary models, flagging aircraft for operator attention if either there is an abrupt change in their observed kinematic data or if they appear to be engaging in hostile behaviour
At a level of sophistication we propose a suite of deterministic Threat Evaluation (TE) models, each adopting some measure of threat, taking observed aircraft kinematic and Defended Assets (DAs) deployment data as input and producing as output a threat value within the real interval [0, 1]
Summary
The story of modern warfare begins with Napoleon. His considerable impact on the art of war is still felt today in a variety of ways — his innovative genius transformed strategy, tactics, organization and logistics. Germany’s World War I zeppelins, which conducted cross-channel bombing attacks against London, preceded the airplane as the first active aerial threat. This led to the establishment of a team of scientists that would ‘consider how far recent advances in scientific and technical knowledge can be used to strengthen the present methods of defence against hostile aircraft’ [23] These activities led to the design and development of radar for Air Defence (AD) in Britain and marks the first Operations Research success story. This is seen as one of the first Threat Evaluation (TE) Decision Support Systems (DSSs)
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