Real-time space weather forecasting driven by solar observations

Abstract

Over the past several years, our group has been conducting a study of the performance of several solar wind models for predicting, immediately following solar events, the propagation of interplanetary shocks from the Sun to the Earth. Our “fearless forecasts” are distributed in real-time to anyone interested. We are presently using three separate models to provide these predictions: the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM), the Shock Time of Arrival model (STOA), and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) model. Each model is driven by the same set of solar observations and each predicts interplanetary shock arrival time (SAT) at the L1 spacecraft location. In addition, the HAF model predicts solar wind conditions at L1 and other locations in the heliosphere, and produces ecliptic-plane maps of IMF topology and solar wind conditions. We are also conducting a detailed study of the HAF model capabilities to provide quantitative forecasts of the geoeffectiveness of solar-driven space disturbances. The development of a space weather forecast scheme is a test of our physical understanding of solar-terrestrial relationships. It is also an engineering challenge. This talk presents the status of our forecasting efforts. The lessons we have learned should benefit others soon to join the real-time space weather prediction challenge.