Abstract
Abstract. Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in this study in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. Real-time PSHA follows the traditional PSHA framework, but the statistic occurrence rate is substituted by time-dependent seismic source probability. Over the last decade, the pattern informatics (PI) method has been developed as a time-dependent probability model of seismic source. We employed this method as a function of time-dependent seismic source probability, and we selected two major earthquakes in Taiwan as examples to explore real-time PSHA. These are the Meinong earthquake (ML 6.6) of 5 February 2016 and the Hualien earthquake (ML 6.2) of 6 February 2018. The seismic intensity maps produced by the real-time PSHA method facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real ground motion data from the P-alert network, our seismic intensity forecasting maps showed considerable effectiveness. This result indicated that real-time PSHA is practicable and provides useful information that could be employed in the prevention of earthquake disasters.
Highlights
Research on and the application of seismic hazard analyses focus on two major aspects of seismic activity, namely the pre-earthquake and post-earthquake phases
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) determines the probability of exceeding the ground motion level over a specified time period based on the occurrence rate of earthquakes and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs)
This study presents a method to achieve real-time seismic hazard assessment by replacing the static seismic rate, i.e., the truncated and characteristic earthquake models, with the time-dependent seismic source probability of the pattern informatics (PI) method
Summary
Research on and the application of seismic hazard analyses focus on two major aspects of seismic activity, namely the pre-earthquake and post-earthquake phases. Postearthquake seismic hazard assessment is employed mainly in the earthquake early warning (EEW) system (Cooper, 1868; Wu et al, 1998, 2013), which provides people with crucial time to seek refuge before the arrival of larger seismic waves. Pre-earthquake seismic hazard assessment conventionally employs probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA; Cornell, 1968; SSHAC, 1997) mainly for engineering design. PSHA determines the probability of exceeding the ground motion level over a specified time period based on the occurrence rate of earthquakes and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The earthquake occurrence rate computed from these models will not change with time regardless of whether the data being used are from long-term observations or paleoseismic studies. Statistical long-term seismic hazard assessment, does not have relevance to the daily life of most people
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