Real‐time predictions of geomagnetic storms and substorms: Use of the Solar Wind Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere System model

Abstract

A low‐dimensional, plasma physics‐based, nonlinear dynamical model of the coupled magnetosphere‐ionosphere system, called Real‐Time Solar Wind Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere System (WINDMI), is used to predict AL and Dst values approximately 1 h before geomagnetic substorm and storm event. Subsequently, every 10 min ground‐based measurements compiled by World Data Center, Kyoto, are compared with model predictions (http://orion.ph.utexas.edu/∼windmi/realtime/). WINDMI model runs are also available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/). The performance of the Real‐Time WINDMI model is quantitatively evaluated for 22 storm/substorm event predictions from February 2006 to August 2008. Three possible input solar wind‐magnetosphere coupling functions are considered: the standard rectified coupling function, a function due to Siscoe, and a recent function due to Newell. Model AL and Dst predictions are validated using the average relative variance (ARV), correlation coefficient (COR), and root mean squared error (RMSE). The Newell input function yielded the best model AL predictions by all three measures (mean ARV, COR, and RMSE), followed by the rectified, then Siscoe input functions. Model AL predictions correlate at least 1 standard deviation better with the AL index data than a direct correlation between the input coupling functions and the AL index. The mean Dst ARV results show better prediction performance for the rectified input than the Siscoe and Newell inputs. The mean Dst COR and RMSE measures do not readily distinguish between the three input coupling functions.