Real‐time prediction of the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of >100 MeV solar energetic proton events

Abstract

AbstractA new model for predicting the occurrence of >100 MeV solar energetic proton (SEP) events and the first hours of the >100 MeV integral proton flux is presented. This model uses a novel approach based on the lag correlation between strong positive derivatives of X‐ray flux and proton flux. The new model has been validated with data from January 1994 to September 2013, obtaining a probability of detection of all >100 MeV SEP events of 80.85%, a false alarm ratio of 29.62%, and an average warning time of 1 h and 6 min. The model identifies the associated flare and active region. Currently, there is no other automatic empirical or physics‐based system able to predict SEP events of energies in the interval of 100 MeV to ~430 MeV (lower GLE cutoff according to Clem and Dorman (2000)). This paper also proposes the combined use of the new prediction model and the existing one for predicting >10 MeV SEP events. The combined SEP prediction models have been developed to improve mitigation of adverse effects on near‐Earth and interplanetary missions.