Abstract
The past devastating earthquakes in densely populated urban centers, such as the 1994 Northridge; 1995 Kobe; 1999 series of Kocaeli, Düzce, and Athens; and 2011 Van-Erciş events, showed that substantial social and economic losses can be expected. Previous studies indicate that inadequate emergency response can increase the number of casualties by a maximum factor of 10, which suggests the need for research on rapid earthquake shaking damage and loss estimation. The reduction in casualties in urban areas immediately following an earthquake can be improved if the location and severity of damages can be rapidly assessed by information from rapid response systems. In this context, a research project (TUBITAK-109M734) titled “Real-time Information of Earthquake Shaking, Damage, and Losses for Target Cities of Thessaloniki and Istanbul” was conducted during 2011–2014 to establish the rapid estimation of ground motion shaking and related earthquake damages and casualties for the target cities. In the present study, application to Istanbul metropolitan area is presented. In order to fulfill this objective, earthquake hazard and risk assessment methodology known as Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, which was developed for the Euro-Mediterranean region within the Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology EC-FP6 project, was used. The current application to the Istanbul metropolitan area provides real-time ground motion information obtained by strong motion stations distributed throughout the densely populated areas of the city. According to this ground motion information, building damage estimation is computed by using grid-based building inventory, and the related loss is then estimated. Through this application, the rapidly estimated information enables public and private emergency management authorities to take action and allocate and prioritize resources to minimize the casualties in urban areas during immediate post-earthquake periods. Moreover, it is expected that during an earthquake, rapid information of ground shaking, damage, and loss estimations will provide vital information to allow appropriate emergency agencies to take immediate action, which will help to save lives. In general terms, this study can be considered as an example for application to metropolitan areas under seismic risk.
Highlights
Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information
Because the Istanbul metropolitan area is under high seismic risk, prediction of damage and casualty distributions throughout the European and Asian sides is an essential requirement for a rapid response system
The existing IERRS algorithm for Istanbul was improved, and a new algorithm, ELER, was adopted; the latter was developed during the EC-FP6 NERIES project
Summary
Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. In the view of above examples, there is no doubt that the presence of a real-time loss estimation application in metropolitan cities subject to earthquake hazards will provide immediate action and help to mitigate seismic risk during a potential future earthquake by providing rapid estimation of ground motion shaking maps and damage and loss assessments. In Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) developed a nowcast system for disseminating real-time information on the parameters of earthquakes, tsunami possibility, and seismic intensity at each observation station. A system for Real-Time Assessment of Earthquake Disasters in Yokohoma (READY), in operation since 1997, was developed to provide information on the spatial distribution of intensity and damage about 20 min after an earthquake. The rapid loss estimation systems currently used in Japan and Taiwan have been described by Yamazaki (2001) and Yeh et al (2006), respectively
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